本帖最后由 小鱼游游 于 2016-7-27 11:21 编辑
2016年6月21晚19:00，在小鱼儿网举行了第12期斜杠青年说——资本寒冬下的资金温度。小鱼儿网的娘娘叶总用她23年的证券从业经历，告诉你资本寒冬中金融世界的不一样视角。
话题首先从何谓M1展开？行走在金融江湖中必然要拥有可以行走江湖的能力，M1就可谓行走金融市场中利器，资金到底从哪来，又去往哪里呢？ >>M1与你的命运。What is M1? Is it related to you? Where is the money from? Ø Everyone is related with M1, the fate of each individual has been manipulated by it. Before understanding M1, look at M0(= all the printed money).M1=M0+非金融企业活期存款+机关团体活期存款，aka, 狭义货币。M2=广义货币，是比M1更为复杂的资金构成。 同业拆借月加权利率为2.14%，质押回购利率为2.10%。
Ø Before 2012， all the rise in M2 coincided with the growth of Chinese economy. Yet, after 2013, the rise of M1 saw decline in GDP. So, with growing volume of notes, will good things happen?
Well, as the base is large enough over the years, the growth rate of monetary volume is largely related to real estate industry and automobiles industry, but other industries experienced increasing drop, such as clothing and steel.
Ø The new round of M1 circle does not bring up household income, which actually remained stable. So where did the money go?
>>60% went to government platforms and SOEs, and rest 40% to real estate. That is why all platform and incubators get popular. All subsidies for new industries were from the government. Especially since 2015, that has been the new norm. What should we do then? Wary of 经济滞胀(stagnation)！！！
Ø So when economy is sluggish, as we are in, a stage of economic stagnation where price goes sky rocket but capital spill out, one should get 实物资产（tangible assets）, such as silver, gold, or黄金石油农产品, particularlyYOUR HOUSE!!!! Choose wisely, in this new wave of foam, get a house and then some gold bars!!!
Ø After stagnation, follows slowdown. The Chinese economy is going in the shape of L, we are in the decline process, not even hitting the bottom. If you are in such a stage, you will see prices dropping, and the probable assets should be financial assets金融资产，eg. H stock H股 in Hong Kong, securities and so on.
Ø Yet, we are still in stagnation and slow down is far behind. So, Ms. Ye persuades her mom to get some gold! You should care about this matter. 90% of the population didn’t care about them. However, as a concerned individual one should get smart with managing the assets. 综上而言，我们明确了三个定义，其一，M0，M0=流通中现金，指银行体系以外各个单位的库存现金和居民的手持现金之和。 其二，M1 ,M1=M0+非金融企业活期存款+机关团体活期存款。 其三，M2, （M2）=M1+准货币（定期存款+居民储蓄存款+其他存款）。
明确了这些看似深奥难懂的金融定义，其实也就是明白了资金从何而来。而它们又去往何处呢？目前货币超发，犹如大海涨潮，海水溢出，而路面上并没有看见水迹，这些超发的货币又去了哪里呢？大约60%的资金去了政府平台或是控股公司，剩下40%的资金去了房地产产业。 那么，在明白了资金的来龙去脉后，在经济滞胀期和衰退期个人又该如何配置资产呢？ 娘娘又亮出了她的一个独门利器，简单实用——美林投资时钟理论。 >>个人、家庭如何配置资产？ Ø 7天回购利率 vs十年期国债收益率， for十年期，Jp -3%, Germany 1%, cn 3.5%，so the cn economy is still vibrant. Given the context of a winter of capital, individuals get tangibles in stagnation and then sell em in slowdown.
>>what about companies? Ø Get government money, play their rules. Meet its criteria and survive the winter. 总结来说，在经济的持续下行期，物价成为最重要的投资风向标。如果物价上涨，意味着实物资产是最佳投资选择，而物价上升意味着利率上行，对债券直接形成打击，也对股市的估值不利，所以在滞胀期实物资产显著优于金融资产。如果物价下跌，意味着实物资产受损，所以这时最佳选择是金融资产，因为债券有票息，股票有股息，所以在衰退期金融资产显著优于实物资产。 在娘娘结束分享后，大家仿佛觉得醍醐灌顶，一下子反转了以往对于金融的概念，觉得它如此贴近生活，借此契机，便提出了许多感兴趣的问题，现稍作整理，和大家分享。
1. 南京楼市判断预言 答：南京是个魅力城市，1线城市集群，国务院的长三角规划，江北新区等。房价只会继续上涨
2. 股市判断预言。 答：今年下半年stock market shall have a miracle rise。
3. 家庭保值，资产如何分配？ 答：721，10%买保险，20% 现金，70%house房产+股票。
4. 保险买什么? 答：保障型的。不要选投资险。
Btw, a venture capitalist said he doesn’t want concepts, he wants a project that can generate real revenue really quick. For young guys there aren’t much financial products they can choose, evenprivate equity products are too few. But they can get Yu’ebao, then get 基金定投，fixed time pay fixed amount. Chooseone for a number of years or指数基金。闭着眼睛存，就认为是存给孙子的，rich or poor, the dripping water penetrates the stone.
Ø 10-15年换一套房子，其实3-5年最好。新房子装修好住个7-8年就换，然后可以买个新房。新房子涨幅一定高于二手房。保证资产的增值幅度高。房子超过20年贷款资质都没有。房子多了就不要再投资房子。有人讲今年7月份之后抛售房子换成金子。 Ø 刚需总要买。投资要谨慎，拴在房子上还是不合理的。房子是被动投资，风险和利润不成正比。货币会贬值，贷款可以多贷些。永远不要等房子跌才买。如果要投资，还是投资房地产相关产业。前期来南京的外地年轻人一定要先购置一套60平以上房子。如果一直持有现金就是向政府交“智商税”，千万不要过多的持有现金。
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